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When you come within four points of winning the national championship and get four starters back, you might assume that Hubert Davis will head into 2022-23 hoping to just keep the good times rolling. But the North Carolina coach actually wants to do things a little differently even with a lot of the same faces back in the fold. North Carolina leaned heavily on its starting five, and that strategy really paid off in the magical NCAA Tournament run.
But Davis wonders if it might not be sustainable for a long, grueling season. He's determined to let the rest of North Carolina's talented roster show why they deserve a spot in an expanded rotation.
"I'm going to give everyone an opportunity 100 percent," Davis said, via Inside Carolina. "Every day of practice, you have an opportunity to play, plain and simple, period, the end. But the players will determine the rotation. When we get into practice, whatever the rotation is, that's what has been determined by the guys out there on the floor.”
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Let's dive into North Carolina's 2022-23 roster with a look at the projected starting lineup and the potential difference-makers off the bench:
There were times last year when North Carolina’s best guard was Davis. It will be interesting to see how Davis and the UNC coaching staff adapt the roles of both Davis and Caleb Love. You need multiple guys that are comfortable in pick-’n’-rolls, and UNC had just that. Davis was second on the team in pick-’n’-roll possessions (184), and he averaged a very productive 0.80 points per possession, per Synergy. The 6-foot guard also proved that he was an elite shooter. Davis was in the 96th percentile overall in catch-and-shoot opportunities, according to Synergy. Davis also proved he could be a dangerous creator for both himself and his teammates with his ability to get into the lane and make tough fadeaway midrange jumpers or dish out dimes. Thanks to his prowess in pick-’n’-rolls, the UNC coaching staff might have to consider ramping up Davis’ usage even more. If that happens, Davis could have All-ACC upside.
The world got to see how good Caleb Love can be on any given night. His heaters in the NCAA Tournament were incredible to behold. Love has ridiculous confidence and will never be afraid to take and make the big shots in the scariest moments. Like R.J. Davis, Love was just a terrific catch-and-shoot sniper. He graded out in the 96th percentile, per Synergy, averaging 1.38 points per possession. The next step for Love is improving his consistency and his finishing in the paint. He shot just 29% from the field on runners and he really struggled at the rim. Love clearly has the athleticism and skill to be a pro, and if he smoothes out the fixable flaws in his game, UNC could have a new level it could attain in 2022-23.
Black is one of the elite role players in the country. His value to winning was on full display last season. He’s back to do more of the same. Black will never be a big-time offensive weapon, but his defense more than makes up for it. Getting isolated against Black was a problem. Opponents went just 8 for 23 from the floor in those situations. Oh, and they turned it over 19.4% of the time. Black is just a machine defensively who accepts the toughest assignment every single night. You can’t sag off him on the other end, either. Black knocked down 40% of his unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers.
Nance will not be Brady Manek, but that is not necessarily a bad thing for North Carolina in 2022-23. Nance shot over 42% on catch-and-shoot jumpers last season, which ranked in the 82nd percentile, per Synergy. He really is the new-age big man. Nance is capable of playing the 4 and draining 3-pointers and handling the ball on the perimeter. But Nance can also play the 5. He has the strength to adequately hold up against elite centers. Northwestern frequently asked Nance to guard some of the Big Ten's elite centers like Purdue's Zach Edey, Illinois' Kofi Cockburn, Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis and Michigan's Hunter Dickinson.
Nance also can guard pick-'n'-rolls in a variety of ways. He's fast and athletic enough to switch out onto point guards, but he can also blitz ball screens to force turnovers. Nance averaged 3.0 steals and blocks per 100 possessions this past season for Northwestern. Nance's defensive versatility is the appetizer, but he's a real menace on the offensive end. Nance can draw big men away from the rim due to his silky-smooth jumper, and he made big strides as a passer and playmaker, notching a career-high 22% assist rate in 2021-22.
Manek was definitely an elite shooter, but Nance’s defense and playmaking should help the Northwestern transfer be a flawless fit with North Carolina’s talented returners.
We can talk all day about how talented Bacot is on the offensive end and on the glass. His effort is ridiculous, and the All-American big man will put up video game-like stats next year. But his defense was absolutely phenomenal last year, too. You want some numbers? I have some numbers.
Isolating against Bacot was not a good game plan. He ranked in the 77th percentile, per Synergy. He forced a turnover on 23.1% of the 39 possessions and when opponents did get a shot off, they were just 10 for 30 from the field. That’s excellent. Bacot ranked in the 68th percentile in overall defense, per Synergy, holding opponents to just 36.4% shooting. At the time, it felt wrong that Alondes Williams was named ACC Player of the Year over Bacot, and that decision looks even more egregious now.
This North Carolina backcourt is loaded because Trimble might start for a ton of other teams. The top-30 Class of 2022 point guard is a big-time athlete who played very well for Team USA’s gold-medal-winning U18 squad. Trimble projects to be UNC’s third guard who should be able to spell both Love and Davis, but Trimble’s talented enough that he might force his way into the rotation even more because he can really play some defense and create exceptional looks for his teammates because he can collapse the defense effortlessly.
Johnson looks poised to be North Carolina’s sixth man. Johnson is another long, athletic forward who really showcased some eye-popping talent down the stretch. Johnson was a revelation with 11 points and six rebounds in the National Championship game against Kansas. The addition of Nance will likely force Johnson to the bench, but there’s no reason why he can’t have a big role because he’s a menace in transition and on the glass. The key for Johnson will be to become a trustworthy shooter from downtown.
Styles has a real chance to carve out a big role in Year 2 for UNC. Styles has the length, athleticism and most importantly, the willingness to be a really impactful defender. Styles is another multi-positional weapon that Hubert Davis could lean on against every single team UNC faces off against. North Carolina just has incredible size on the wing that will give so many teams issues, and when it goes to the bench Styles can be another big-bodied wing you have to deal with. Styles is a legitimate 6-foot-6, 210 pounds.
Washington just looks like a UNC forward. The top-50 big man has a ridiculous wingspan who can drain 3s and finish at the rim with both the left and the right hand. North Carolina is in a good spot where they can afford to be patient with a guy like Washington. But that doesn’t mean Washington is going to barely play in Year 1. Hubert Davis has preached that he wants to expand his rotation, so if Washington makes the most of his minutes, he could earn a bigger role down the stretch.
Dunn is a bit of an unknown at this point. The 6-foot-4 guard redshirted this past season, but North Carolina needs a proven third guard. Trimble has to be considered the favorite for that, but Dunn could throw his name into the ring if he has a strong summer/offseason.
The four-star forward is just wired to score. He put up enormous numbers in high school, and the 6-foot-8 forward is coming to North Carolina with the hopes of using his automatic jumper as his catalyst for playing time. North Carolina is loaded on the wing, but Nickel could be one of UNC’s best pure shooters on the roster and that’s basketball’s most valued trait right now.
The 6-foot-8, 220-pound big man could have a similar role as last season. McKoy’s job as Bacot’s backup was to come in and play good defense and hit the glass. If he does those two things well, it’s a job well done for the veteran forward.
Shaver enrolled early which is something Hubert Davis was very blunt about.
"I think [Shaver's early enrollment] was very hard," Davis said during a summer press conference , via Inside Carolina. "I won't ever do that again. It was just really difficult in the middle of the season. I mean, we were in a sprint. And then Will came in the middle of the year, joining the sprint, and he did a terrific job.
"It was just a little difficult. It was hard. In terms of the season, how busy it was coming in as a freshman in the middle of the year, I think it's very difficult. It wasn't a failure; it wasn't bad. Just in the future, I will not do that again."
Even with an early start, it’s probably unfair to expect a ton from Shaver next season. If Bacot stays healthy, he’s going to be on the floor a ton, and there’s more experienced options behind Bacot, too. Shaver could be an interesting name to keep an eye on in 2023-24 when UNC’s frontcourt looks extremely different.
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